Cross-correlation analysis of the productivity of sugar beets and factors, that it is formed

Автор: Пользователь скрыл имя, 18 Ноября 2011 в 21:21, курсовая работа

Описание работы

Statistics are social science, which studies the quantitative side of the high-quality certain mass socio-economic phenomena and processes, their structure and distributing, placing in space, direction and speed of time-histories, tendencies and conformities to law of motion, closeness of intercommunications and interdepends.
The quantitative side of any public phenomenon is indissolubly related to his high-quality aspects, because a quantitative dimension does not exist without high-quality definiteness.

Содержание

Entry.............................................................................................................................................4
1. An object, task of statistics, its organization, short history of development and connection, is with other sciences........................................................................................................................................ 5
1.1. An object, task of statistics and its connection, is with other sciences..................................5
1.2. Short history of development of statistics..............................................................................7
2. Statistical estimation of indexes of products of stock-raising and factors, that on it influence.......................................................................................................................................9
2.1. System of indexes of statistics of stock-raising and method of their calculation....................................................................................................................................9
2.2. Statistical groupings and their kinds....................................................................................11
2.3. Distributing rows and them graphic image..........................................................................15
2.4. Summarizing the indexes of distributing rows......................................................................21
2.5. Variation of signs and indexes of their measuring...............................................................29
2.6. Verification of accordance of distributing of frequencies of empiric row to distributing
Theoretical..................................................................................................................................36
2.7. Selective method....................................................................................................................37
3. Cross-correlation analysis of the productivity of sugar beets and factors, that it is formed...........................................................................................................................................40
3.1. Grade correlation..................................................................................................................40
3.2. Linear regression. Determination of parameters of connection and them economic interpretation.................................................................................................................................43
3.3. Measuring of intensity of correlation. Coefficient of simple correlation and his maintenance.................................................................................................................................. 48
3.4. Plural correlation...................................................................................................................50
Conclusions....................................................................................................................................56
List of the used literature...............................................................................................................57

Работа содержит 1 файл

Курсоватна англ.doc

— 1.55 Мб (Скачать)

     Important description of regressive model is a relative effect of influence of factor of x on a result in is a coefficient of elasticity: 

     He shows, on how many percents a result changes in middle у from  the change of factor х on 1%.

      - coefficient - shows on how many standard deviations an effective sign will change at the change of factor on 1 standard deviation: 

     

 

     Utillizing information of project task, will expect basic indexes, which characterize the crowd conditions of connection between the productivity of grain-crops, quality of soil and bringing of mineral fertilizers. Utillizing auxiliary information expected in a table 7 will make the system of equalizations: 

     

     Will divide each of three equalizations on a coefficient at :

     

     Will take away from the first equalization second and third:

     

     Will divide each of three equalizations on a coefficient at :

     

     Will take away from the first equalization second:

       

     

     

     

     Expecting the coefficients of regression we can set, as far as will change hopes of milk at the change of the proper factor on unit on condition that the second factor, plugged in equalization, is at middle level. So а1=0,73 shows that at the middle dose of output of calves of improvement of charges of forages on one mark will be instrumental in growth of milk yield on 0,73 c.

     The increase of output of calves on a 1 head at the middle expense of forages will provide the increase of yield on 0,161 c.

     Utillizing these tables  will expect indexes which determine the crowd conditions of connection . 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Table 28. Calculation information is for plural correlation

№п/п Y X1 X2 Calculation sizes
У^2 X1^2 X2^2 Y*X1 Y*X2 X1*X2 Yx1x2 (Yx1x2)^2
1 38,1 40,4 95 1451,61 1632,16 9025 1539,24 3619,5 3838 37,817 1430,12549
2 35,9 37,9 93 1288,81 1436,41 8649 1360,61 3338,7 3524,7 35,67 1272,3489
3 38,4 39,5 92 1474,56 1560,25 8464 1516,8 3532,8 3634 36,677 1345,20233
4 37,5 42,3 93 1406,25 1789,29 8649 1586,25 3487,5 3933,9 38,882 1511,80992
5 35,4 36,7 94 1253,16 1346,89 8836 1299,18 3327,6 3449,8 34,955 1221,85203
6 38,2 41,3 93 1459,24 1705,69 8649 1577,66 3552,6 3840,9 38,152 1455,5751
7 36,3 37,6 96 1317,69 1413,76 9216 1364,88 3484,8 3609,6 35,934 1291,25236
8 37,3 38,0 95 1391,29 1444 9025 1417,4 3543,5 3610 36,065 1300,68423
9 41,2 40,2 97 1697,44 1616,04 9409 1656,24 3996,4 3899,4 37,993 1443,46805
10 36 37,4 95 1296 1398,76 9025 1346,4 3420 3553 35,627 1269,28313
11 38,6 43,1 97 1489,96 1857,61 9409 1663,66 3744,2 4180,7 40,11 1608,8121
12 32,4 37,0 91 1049,76 1369 8281 1198,8 2948,4 3367 34,691 1203,46548
13 39,4 41,5 96 1552,36 1722,25 9216 1635,1 3782,4 3984 38,781 1503,96596
14 33,7 37,7 91 1135,69 1421,29 8281 1270,49 3066,7 3430,7 35,202 1239,1808
15 36 38,0 93 1296 1444 8649 1368 3348 3534 35,743 1277,56205
16 39 40,0 96 1521 1600 9216 1560 3744 3840 37,686 1420,2346
17 35,9 37,0 94 1288,81 1369 8836 1328,3 3374,6 3478 35,174 1237,21028
18 37,9 38,5 91 1436,41 1482,25 8281 1459,15 3448,9 3503,5 35,786 1280,6378
19 35,4 38,0 95 1253,16 1444 9025 1345,2 3363 3610 36,065 1300,68423
20 31,3 35,4 90 979,69 1253,16 8100 1108,02 2817 3186 33,362 1113,02304
21 37,5 39,7 91 1406,25 1576,09 8281 1488,75 3412,5 3612,7 36,662 1344,10224
22 38,2 40,6 96 1459,24 1648,36 9216 1550,92 3667,2 3897,6 38,124 1453,43938
23 37,8 39,8 94 1428,84 1584,04 8836 1504,44 3553,2 3741,2 37,218 1385,17952
24 36 37,8 92 1296 1428,84 8464 1360,8 3312 3477,6 35,436 1255,7101
25 33,8 37,5 90 1142,44 1406,25 8100 1267,5 3042 3375 34,895 1217,66103
26 39,4 41,2 95 1552,36 1697,44 9025 1623,28 3743 3914 38,401 1474,6368
27 32 37,1 92 1024 1376,41 8464 1187,2 2944 3413,2 34,925 1219,75563
28 38,3 43,0 97 1466,89 1849 9409 1646,9 3715,1 4171 40,037 1602,96137
29 37,3 42,0 93 1391,29 1764 8649 1566,6 3468,9 3906 38,663 1494,82757
30 35,2 36,6 94 1239,04 1339,56 8836 1288,32 3308,8 3440,4 34,882 1216,75392
Bag 1099,4 1172,8 2811 40445.24 45975.8 263521 43086.09 103107.3 109955.9 1099,6 40391,41
         с

Among.

         ,

36,65

 
39,09
 
93,7
 
1348,175
 
1532,53
 
8784
 
1436,2
 
3436,91
 
3665,2
 
36,65
 
1346,38
 
 
 

     Parni coefficients of correlation 

     

 

     

 

     

 

     Partial coefficients of correlation 

     

     

     0.636<0.764

     0.296<0.597 

     Coefficient of plural correlation 

       
 
 
 

     Coefficient   of детермінації 

     

 

     

 

     

     

     Coefficients of elasticity

     

     

     

- coefficients 

     

       
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Conclusions 

     The purpose of this work was research and analysis of data about hopes of milk in the aggregate of economies, to find the middle indexes of production, conduct grouping of economies after different signs, to define basic internal conformities to the law of process of growing of sugar beets, to find out the measure of influence on hopes of such factors as charges of forages and output of calves in general. During implementation works were to utillize the basic methods of statistical research and theoretical positions of science are applied in practice.

Theoretical part of work includes the study of object, tasks and system of indexes of statistics of stock-raising, except for it familiarized with basic normative documents, which regulate a sphere, principles and tasks activity of statistics, in Ukraine.

     Conducting calculations we can assert that the middle level of yield on a cow for aggregates makes 36,91 c at the same time he hesitates on ± 2,258c or on 6,2% in relation to a middle level, middle level of the utillized forages makes 39,09c.f.un and he in same queue hesitates on ±2,06c.f.un or на 5,3% in relation to a middle level, also at to the middle output of calves for aggregates in a size  93,7 chairmen it hesitates on ±2,08 marks or on 2,2% in relation to a middle level.

     In addition building two cross-correlation models we can mark that hopes on a cow depends on the expense of forages on 57,76%, and other 42,24% it is other невраховані factors, and in other case of hopes  depends on the output of calves on 35,76%, and other 62,24% it is other невраховані factors. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

     List of the utillized literature

1)  Buguckiy O.A., Oprya A.T. et al / Edited Buguckogo o.A. Agricultural statistics are with bases of economic statistics. -К.: Higher school. Main вид-во, 1984. – 294s .

2)  Golovach A.V. Statistics: Textbook. - K.: Higher school, 1993. - 623 s.

3)  Gorkaviy V.K. Statistics: Textbook. - K.: Higher school -415s.

4)  Oprya A.T. Statistics: (with the programmable form of control of knowledges). - K.: Harvest, 1996-448s .

5) Statistic: Textbook/ S.S. Gerasimenko and other. – K.: KNEU  1998. – 468s. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Addition 1

Going of total NUMBER of livestock of CATTLE AND BIRD In AGRICULTURAL ENTERPRISES of AREA  
from January, 1 in 2000 to January, 1 in 2001
 

Indexes Metage  
Code of row Great leanness  horned 
In a that number cows (without cows on fattening 
and working out)
Pigs Sheep and goats In a that number sheep of каракульські Horse Bird
А Б В 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
All present in a presence on January, 1 in 2000 chairmen 40 400 679 161 619 249 771 1482 14 292 5 016 674
Roztelilosya cows and impregnated heifers, sows basic and those which are checked up, sheep uteruses, goat uteruses and ravine chairmen 42 × 142 333 48 853 621 1578 ×
in thereby to calve impregnated heifers (for гр. 1 are impregnated heifers which gave an issue; for гр. 2 are impregnated heifers, translated in cows); sows which are checked up chairmen 43 33 020 33 597 12 960 × × × ×
Borned living calves, piglings, lambs, kids and foals, from uteruses which belong to the economy, and also it is shown out the sapling of bird by chickens and in incubators, that belongs to the economy chairmen 44 143 902 × 380 361 664 1373 13 740 698
 
in thereby borned calves from cows, piglings, from basic pork uteruses chairmen 45 112 332 × 303 514 × × × ×
It is purchased, it is got in an exchange and other receipts (except for a purchase in a population) chairmen 48 18 645 1907 10 938 133 183 4 052 875
Them living weight metric centners 49 39 427 8078 7836 48 594 22 714
It is purchased in a population chairmen 50 3140 195 1259 21 35
Them living weight metric centners 51 5622 848 897 11 121
It is accepted cattle which is given out on a share, from a population chairmen 52 62 40
Them living weight metric centners 53 133 27
It is realized on a backwall (on meat) - all chairmen 56 131 229 18 560 114 136 320 732 3 719 688
Them living weight metric centners 57 329 800 72 885 78 230 95 2448 59 868
In addition, hammered in lambs for the receipt of hides, it is hammered cockerels in day's age chairmen 62 × × × × 1 844 693
It is sold, it is passed, devotedly in an exchange and other leaving for the subsequent growing (except for a sale a population) chairmen 63 17 292 3186 9320 3 564 3 903 564
Them living weight metric centners 64 44 672 12453 6051 2 1902 4463
It is sold and given out a population, including a sale a sapling at the market chairmen 65 36 635 2944 204 742 280 1631 7 290 889
Them living weight metric centners 66 60 404 11 629 28 369 71 4478 35 755
including waterfowl chairmen 67 × × × × × × 524 721
It is given out a population on a share chairmen 68 92 1 36 2 40 000
Them living weight metric centners 69 470 4 22 9 320
Zdokhlo and perished cattle different age, including sapling of birth of financial year chairmen 70 13 758 741 44 639 58 474 1 833 346
Cows are translated from a basic herd in other groups (on fattening, working out) chairmen 73 × 22092 × × × × ×
All present in a presence on January, 1, 2001 chairmen 75 367 452 149 795 269 492 1639 12582 4 218 067
Them living weight metric centners 76 1 079 702 638 627 146 384 478   59 626

Информация о работе Cross-correlation analysis of the productivity of sugar beets and factors, that it is formed