Автор: Пользователь скрыл имя, 18 Ноября 2011 в 21:21, курсовая работа
Statistics are social science, which studies the quantitative side of the high-quality certain mass socio-economic phenomena and processes, their structure and distributing, placing in space, direction and speed of time-histories, tendencies and conformities to law of motion, closeness of intercommunications and interdepends.
The quantitative side of any public phenomenon is indissolubly related to his high-quality aspects, because a quantitative dimension does not exist without high-quality definiteness.
Entry.............................................................................................................................................4
1. An object, task of statistics, its organization, short history of development and connection, is with other sciences........................................................................................................................................ 5
1.1. An object, task of statistics and its connection, is with other sciences..................................5
1.2. Short history of development of statistics..............................................................................7
2. Statistical estimation of indexes of products of stock-raising and factors, that on it influence.......................................................................................................................................9
2.1. System of indexes of statistics of stock-raising and method of their calculation....................................................................................................................................9
2.2. Statistical groupings and their kinds....................................................................................11
2.3. Distributing rows and them graphic image..........................................................................15
2.4. Summarizing the indexes of distributing rows......................................................................21
2.5. Variation of signs and indexes of their measuring...............................................................29
2.6. Verification of accordance of distributing of frequencies of empiric row to distributing
Theoretical..................................................................................................................................36
2.7. Selective method....................................................................................................................37
3. Cross-correlation analysis of the productivity of sugar beets and factors, that it is formed...........................................................................................................................................40
3.1. Grade correlation..................................................................................................................40
3.2. Linear regression. Determination of parameters of connection and them economic interpretation.................................................................................................................................43
3.3. Measuring of intensity of correlation. Coefficient of simple correlation and his maintenance.................................................................................................................................. 48
3.4. Plural correlation...................................................................................................................50
Conclusions....................................................................................................................................56
List of the used literature...............................................................................................................57
Important
description of regressive model is a relative effect of influence of
factor of x on a result in is a coefficient of elasticity:
He shows, on how many percents a result changes in middle у from the change of factor х on 1%.
- coefficient - shows on how many standard deviations
an effective sign will change at the change of factor on 1 standard
deviation:
Utillizing
information of project task, will expect basic indexes, which characterize
the crowd conditions of connection between the productivity of grain-crops,
quality of soil and bringing of mineral fertilizers. Utillizing auxiliary
information expected in a table 7 will make the system of equalizations:
Will divide each of three equalizations on a coefficient at :
Will take away from the first equalization second and third:
Will divide each of three equalizations on a coefficient at :
Will take away from the first equalization second:
Expecting the coefficients of regression we can set, as far as will change hopes of milk at the change of the proper factor on unit on condition that the second factor, plugged in equalization, is at middle level. So а1=0,73 shows that at the middle dose of output of calves of improvement of charges of forages on one mark will be instrumental in growth of milk yield on 0,73 c.
The increase of output of calves on a 1 head at the middle expense of forages will provide the increase of yield on 0,161 c.
Utillizing
these tables will expect indexes which determine the crowd conditions
of connection .
Table 28. Calculation information is for plural correlation
№п/п | Y | X1 | X2 | Calculation sizes | ||||||||
У^2 | X1^2 | X2^2 | Y*X1 | Y*X2 | X1*X2 | Yx1x2 | (Yx1x2)^2 | |||||
1 | 38,1 | 40,4 | 95 | 1451,61 | 1632,16 | 9025 | 1539,24 | 3619,5 | 3838 | 37,817 | 1430,12549 | |
2 | 35,9 | 37,9 | 93 | 1288,81 | 1436,41 | 8649 | 1360,61 | 3338,7 | 3524,7 | 35,67 | 1272,3489 | |
3 | 38,4 | 39,5 | 92 | 1474,56 | 1560,25 | 8464 | 1516,8 | 3532,8 | 3634 | 36,677 | 1345,20233 | |
4 | 37,5 | 42,3 | 93 | 1406,25 | 1789,29 | 8649 | 1586,25 | 3487,5 | 3933,9 | 38,882 | 1511,80992 | |
5 | 35,4 | 36,7 | 94 | 1253,16 | 1346,89 | 8836 | 1299,18 | 3327,6 | 3449,8 | 34,955 | 1221,85203 | |
6 | 38,2 | 41,3 | 93 | 1459,24 | 1705,69 | 8649 | 1577,66 | 3552,6 | 3840,9 | 38,152 | 1455,5751 | |
7 | 36,3 | 37,6 | 96 | 1317,69 | 1413,76 | 9216 | 1364,88 | 3484,8 | 3609,6 | 35,934 | 1291,25236 | |
8 | 37,3 | 38,0 | 95 | 1391,29 | 1444 | 9025 | 1417,4 | 3543,5 | 3610 | 36,065 | 1300,68423 | |
9 | 41,2 | 40,2 | 97 | 1697,44 | 1616,04 | 9409 | 1656,24 | 3996,4 | 3899,4 | 37,993 | 1443,46805 | |
10 | 36 | 37,4 | 95 | 1296 | 1398,76 | 9025 | 1346,4 | 3420 | 3553 | 35,627 | 1269,28313 | |
11 | 38,6 | 43,1 | 97 | 1489,96 | 1857,61 | 9409 | 1663,66 | 3744,2 | 4180,7 | 40,11 | 1608,8121 | |
12 | 32,4 | 37,0 | 91 | 1049,76 | 1369 | 8281 | 1198,8 | 2948,4 | 3367 | 34,691 | 1203,46548 | |
13 | 39,4 | 41,5 | 96 | 1552,36 | 1722,25 | 9216 | 1635,1 | 3782,4 | 3984 | 38,781 | 1503,96596 | |
14 | 33,7 | 37,7 | 91 | 1135,69 | 1421,29 | 8281 | 1270,49 | 3066,7 | 3430,7 | 35,202 | 1239,1808 | |
15 | 36 | 38,0 | 93 | 1296 | 1444 | 8649 | 1368 | 3348 | 3534 | 35,743 | 1277,56205 | |
16 | 39 | 40,0 | 96 | 1521 | 1600 | 9216 | 1560 | 3744 | 3840 | 37,686 | 1420,2346 | |
17 | 35,9 | 37,0 | 94 | 1288,81 | 1369 | 8836 | 1328,3 | 3374,6 | 3478 | 35,174 | 1237,21028 | |
18 | 37,9 | 38,5 | 91 | 1436,41 | 1482,25 | 8281 | 1459,15 | 3448,9 | 3503,5 | 35,786 | 1280,6378 | |
19 | 35,4 | 38,0 | 95 | 1253,16 | 1444 | 9025 | 1345,2 | 3363 | 3610 | 36,065 | 1300,68423 | |
20 | 31,3 | 35,4 | 90 | 979,69 | 1253,16 | 8100 | 1108,02 | 2817 | 3186 | 33,362 | 1113,02304 | |
21 | 37,5 | 39,7 | 91 | 1406,25 | 1576,09 | 8281 | 1488,75 | 3412,5 | 3612,7 | 36,662 | 1344,10224 | |
22 | 38,2 | 40,6 | 96 | 1459,24 | 1648,36 | 9216 | 1550,92 | 3667,2 | 3897,6 | 38,124 | 1453,43938 | |
23 | 37,8 | 39,8 | 94 | 1428,84 | 1584,04 | 8836 | 1504,44 | 3553,2 | 3741,2 | 37,218 | 1385,17952 | |
24 | 36 | 37,8 | 92 | 1296 | 1428,84 | 8464 | 1360,8 | 3312 | 3477,6 | 35,436 | 1255,7101 | |
25 | 33,8 | 37,5 | 90 | 1142,44 | 1406,25 | 8100 | 1267,5 | 3042 | 3375 | 34,895 | 1217,66103 | |
26 | 39,4 | 41,2 | 95 | 1552,36 | 1697,44 | 9025 | 1623,28 | 3743 | 3914 | 38,401 | 1474,6368 | |
27 | 32 | 37,1 | 92 | 1024 | 1376,41 | 8464 | 1187,2 | 2944 | 3413,2 | 34,925 | 1219,75563 | |
28 | 38,3 | 43,0 | 97 | 1466,89 | 1849 | 9409 | 1646,9 | 3715,1 | 4171 | 40,037 | 1602,96137 | |
29 | 37,3 | 42,0 | 93 | 1391,29 | 1764 | 8649 | 1566,6 | 3468,9 | 3906 | 38,663 | 1494,82757 | |
30 | 35,2 | 36,6 | 94 | 1239,04 | 1339,56 | 8836 | 1288,32 | 3308,8 | 3440,4 | 34,882 | 1216,75392 | |
Bag | 1099,4 | 1172,8 | 2811 | 40445.24 | 45975.8 | 263521 | 43086.09 | 103107.3 | 109955.9 | 1099,6 | 40391,41 | |
Among. |
36,65 |
39,09 |
93,7 |
1348,175 |
1532,53 |
8784 |
1436,2 |
3436,91 |
3665,2 |
36,65 |
1346,38 |
Parni
coefficients of correlation
Partial
coefficients of correlation
0.636<0.764
0.296<0.597
Coefficient
of plural correlation
Coefficient
of детермінації
Coefficients of elasticity
Conclusions
The purpose of this work was research and analysis of data about hopes of milk in the aggregate of economies, to find the middle indexes of production, conduct grouping of economies after different signs, to define basic internal conformities to the law of process of growing of sugar beets, to find out the measure of influence on hopes of such factors as charges of forages and output of calves in general. During implementation works were to utillize the basic methods of statistical research and theoretical positions of science are applied in practice.
Theoretical part of work includes the study of object, tasks and system of indexes of statistics of stock-raising, except for it familiarized with basic normative documents, which regulate a sphere, principles and tasks activity of statistics, in Ukraine.
Conducting calculations we can assert that the middle level of yield on a cow for aggregates makes 36,91 c at the same time he hesitates on ± 2,258c or on 6,2% in relation to a middle level, middle level of the utillized forages makes 39,09c.f.un and he in same queue hesitates on ±2,06c.f.un or на 5,3% in relation to a middle level, also at to the middle output of calves for aggregates in a size 93,7 chairmen it hesitates on ±2,08 marks or on 2,2% in relation to a middle level.
In
addition building two cross-correlation models we can mark that hopes
on a cow depends on the expense of forages on 57,76%, and other 42,24%
it is other невраховані factors, and in other case of hopes
depends on the output of calves on 35,76%, and other 62,24% it is other
невраховані factors.
List of the utillized literature
1) Buguckiy O.A., Oprya A.T. et al / Edited Buguckogo o.A. Agricultural statistics are with bases of economic statistics. -К.: Higher school. Main вид-во, 1984. – 294s .
2) Golovach A.V. Statistics: Textbook. - K.: Higher school, 1993. - 623 s.
3) Gorkaviy V.K. Statistics: Textbook. - K.: Higher school -415s.
4) Oprya A.T. Statistics: (with the programmable form of control of knowledges). - K.: Harvest, 1996-448s .
5) Statistic:
Textbook/ S.S. Gerasimenko and other. – K.: KNEU 1998. –
468s.
Addition 1
Going of total
NUMBER of livestock of CATTLE AND BIRD In AGRICULTURAL ENTERPRISES of
AREA
from January, 1 in 2000 to January, 1 in 2001
Indexes | Metage |
Code of row | Great leanness horned |
In a that number cows (without
cows on fattening and working out) |
Pigs | Sheep and goats | In a that number sheep of каракульські | Horse | Bird |
А | Б | В | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
All present in a presence on January, 1 in 2000 | chairmen | 40 | 400 679 | 161 619 | 249 771 | 1482 | — | 14 292 | 5 016 674 |
Roztelilosya cows and impregnated heifers, sows basic and those which are checked up, sheep uteruses, goat uteruses and ravine | chairmen | 42 | × | 142 333 | 48 853 | 621 | — | 1578 | × |
in thereby to calve impregnated heifers (for гр. 1 are impregnated heifers which gave an issue; for гр. 2 are impregnated heifers, translated in cows); sows which are checked up | chairmen | 43 | 33 020 | 33 597 | 12 960 | × | × | × | × |
Borned living calves, piglings, lambs, kids and foals, from uteruses which belong to the economy, and also it is shown out the sapling of bird by chickens and in incubators, that belongs to the economy | chairmen | 44 | 143 902 | × | 380 361 | 664 | — | 1373 | 13 740 698 |
in thereby borned calves from cows, piglings, from basic pork uteruses | chairmen | 45 | 112 332 | × | 303 514 | × | × | × | × |
It is purchased, it is got in an exchange and other receipts (except for a purchase in a population) | chairmen | 48 | 18 645 | 1907 | 10 938 | 133 | — | 183 | 4 052 875 |
Them living weight | metric centners | 49 | 39 427 | 8078 | 7836 | 48 | — | 594 | 22 714 |
It is purchased in a population | chairmen | 50 | 3140 | 195 | 1259 | 21 | — | 35 | — |
Them living weight | metric centners | 51 | 5622 | 848 | 897 | 11 | — | 121 | — |
It is accepted cattle which is given out on a share, from a population | chairmen | 52 | 62 | — | 40 | — | — | — | — |
Them living weight | metric centners | 53 | 133 | — | 27 | — | — | — | — |
It is realized on a backwall (on meat) - all | chairmen | 56 | 131 229 | 18 560 | 114 136 | 320 | — | 732 | 3 719 688 |
Them living weight | metric centners | 57 | 329 800 | 72 885 | 78 230 | 95 | — | 2448 | 59 868 |
In addition, hammered in lambs for the receipt of hides, it is hammered cockerels in day's age | chairmen | 62 | × | × | × | — | — | × | 1 844 693 |
It is sold, it is passed, devotedly in an exchange and other leaving for the subsequent growing (except for a sale a population) | chairmen | 63 | 17 292 | 3186 | 9320 | 3 | — | 564 | 3 903 564 |
Them living weight | metric centners | 64 | 44 672 | 12453 | 6051 | 2 | — | 1902 | 4463 |
It is sold and given out a population, including a sale a sapling at the market | chairmen | 65 | 36 635 | 2944 | 204 742 | 280 | — | 1631 | 7 290 889 |
Them living weight | metric centners | 66 | 60 404 | 11 629 | 28 369 | 71 | — | 4478 | 35 755 |
including waterfowl | chairmen | 67 | × | × | × | × | × | × | 524 721 |
It is given out a population on a share | chairmen | 68 | 92 | 1 | 36 | — | — | 2 | 40 000 |
Them living weight | metric centners | 69 | 470 | 4 | 22 | — | — | 9 | 320 |
Zdokhlo and perished cattle different age, including sapling of birth of financial year | chairmen | 70 | 13 758 | 741 | 44 639 | 58 | — | 474 | 1 833 346 |
Cows are translated from a basic herd in other groups (on fattening, working out) | chairmen | 73 | × | 22092 | × | × | × | × | × |
All present in a presence on January, 1, 2001 | chairmen | 75 | 367 452 | 149 795 | 269 492 | 1639 | — | 12582 | 4 218 067 |
Them living weight | metric centners | 76 | 1 079 702 | 638 627 | 146 384 | 478 | — | 59 626 |