Cross-correlation analysis of the productivity of sugar beets and factors, that it is formed

Автор: Пользователь скрыл имя, 18 Ноября 2011 в 21:21, курсовая работа

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Statistics are social science, which studies the quantitative side of the high-quality certain mass socio-economic phenomena and processes, their structure and distributing, placing in space, direction and speed of time-histories, tendencies and conformities to law of motion, closeness of intercommunications and interdepends.
The quantitative side of any public phenomenon is indissolubly related to his high-quality aspects, because a quantitative dimension does not exist without high-quality definiteness.

Содержание

Entry.............................................................................................................................................4
1. An object, task of statistics, its organization, short history of development and connection, is with other sciences........................................................................................................................................ 5
1.1. An object, task of statistics and its connection, is with other sciences..................................5
1.2. Short history of development of statistics..............................................................................7
2. Statistical estimation of indexes of products of stock-raising and factors, that on it influence.......................................................................................................................................9
2.1. System of indexes of statistics of stock-raising and method of their calculation....................................................................................................................................9
2.2. Statistical groupings and their kinds....................................................................................11
2.3. Distributing rows and them graphic image..........................................................................15
2.4. Summarizing the indexes of distributing rows......................................................................21
2.5. Variation of signs and indexes of their measuring...............................................................29
2.6. Verification of accordance of distributing of frequencies of empiric row to distributing
Theoretical..................................................................................................................................36
2.7. Selective method....................................................................................................................37
3. Cross-correlation analysis of the productivity of sugar beets and factors, that it is formed...........................................................................................................................................40
3.1. Grade correlation..................................................................................................................40
3.2. Linear regression. Determination of parameters of connection and them economic interpretation.................................................................................................................................43
3.3. Measuring of intensity of correlation. Coefficient of simple correlation and his maintenance.................................................................................................................................. 48
3.4. Plural correlation...................................................................................................................50
Conclusions....................................................................................................................................56
List of the used literature...............................................................................................................57

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      Will expect middle arithmetic simple for effective and two factor signs:

               

      

      Will expect middle harmonious simple for effective and two factor signs:

             

        

      Will expect middle quadratic simple for effective and two factor signs: 
 

         

      To check up the rightness of calculation of averages we can utillizing the rule of majority. Essence of him consists in that middle harmonious always less than, than middle arithmetic, and in same queue yet less than, than middle quadratic. That

      Charges of forages are on a cow: 38,99<39,09<39,15

      For the output of calves: 93,66<93,7<93,72

      For will milk: 36,5<36,65<38,49

      As see the rule of majority executed.

      Will expect middle arithmetic weighed and confirming the calculation of counting out a method from the conditional beginning (by the method of moments).

      For the calculation of middle arithmetic it is necessary to utillize two properties of middle arithmetic the method of moments:

      1. if to decrease all variants on some number and, the middle will diminish on this number;

      2. if to decrease variants in and one times (to divide), the middle will diminish in so much times.

      Middle the method of moments calculated on a formula:

                                                      =m1i + a,

      where m1- moment of the first order. He is evened: , 

      where а – number which all variants diminish on, more frequent it variant which is in the middle  of row or has most frequency; і – size of interval (as in  our case row of equalinterval).

      Utillizing the interval variation row of distributing after the level of bringing of mineral fertilizers, will define  the middle level of bringing of mineral fertilizers for all aggregate the method of moments.  

Table 12 . Calculation of middle arithmetic by the method of moments

Groups are after the charges of forages Frequencies f Center of interval,х    x-a,

a=37,71

і=1,54

x*f
35,4 –  36,94 3 36,17 -1,54 -1 -3 108,51
36,94 –  38,48 12 37,71 0 0 0 452,52
  38,48 – 40,02 5 39,25 1,54 1 5 196,25
  40,02 – 41,56 6 40,79 3,08 2 12 244,74
  41,56 – 43,1 4 42,33 4,62 3 12 169,32
Together 30 Х Х Х 26 1171,34
 
 

       

      Results of calculations, resulted in a table, put in a formula:

      m1=     m1і + а = 0,87*1,54 +37,71 = 39,05 c.f.un. 

      Parallel determine middle arithmetic weighed:

      

     Consequently, middle arithmetic, expected two in number of different ways, gives a the same result, and we can assert that the middle level of charges of forages makes for aggregates 39,05 c.f.un.

      Utillizing the interval variation row of distributing after the output of calves, will define  the middle level of output of calves for all aggregate the method of moments.  
 
 
 
 
 
 

Table 13.  Calculation of middle arithmetic by the method of moments

Groups are after the output of calves Frequency

f

Center  of interval, х х-а,

а=93,5

,

і=1,4

x*f
90 – 91,4 6 90,7 -2,8 -2 -12 544,2
91,4 – 92,8 3 92,1 -1,4 -1 -3 276,3
92,8 – 94,2 9 93,5 0 0 0 841,5
94,2 –  95,6 5 94,9 1,4 1 5 474,5
95,6 - 97 7 96,3 2,8 2 14 674,1
Together: 30 Х Х Х 4 2810,6
 

       

      Results of calculations, resulted in a table, put in a formula:

      m1= 0,14    m1і + а = 0,14*1,4 +93,5 = 93,69 chairmen

      Parallel determine middle arithmetic weighed:  

      

      Consequently, middle arithmetic, expected two in number of different ways, gives a the same result, and we can assert that the middle level of output of calves for aggregates makes 93,7 chairmen.

      Utillizing the interval variation row of distributing after a yield, will define  the middle level of yield for all aggregate the method of moments.  

Table 14.  Calculation of middle arithmetic by the method of moments

Groups after

by a yield

Frequency

f

Center  of interval,

х

х-а,

а=38,23

,

і=1,98

 
x*f
    31,3 – 33,28 3 32,29 -5,94 -3 -9 96,87
33,28 –  35,26 3 34,27 -3,96 -2 -6 102,81
35,26 –  37,24 8 36,25 -1,98 -1 -8 290
37,24 –  39,22 13 38,23        0        0        0 496,99
39,22 –  41,2 3 40,21      1,98        1        3 120,63
Together 30 Х Х Х      -20 1107,3
 
 

       

      Results of calculations, resulted in a table, put in a formula:

      m1= -0,667     m1і + а = -0,667*1,98 +38,23 = 36,91 c

      Parallel determine middle arithmetic weighed:  

     

       Consequently, middle arithmetic, expected two in number of different ways, gives a the same result, and we can assert that the middle level of yield on a cow for aggregates makes 36,91 c.

     Will expect middle harmonious weighed and middle quadratic weighed for effective and factor signs. 
 

Table 15.A weekend and calculation information is for the calculation of the weighed averages on the expense of forages(X1)

Groups are after the charges of forages Frequencies f Center of interval,х    f i / X1  
     X12
 
   X12fi
35,4 –  36,94 3 36,17 0,08294 1308,269 3924,8067
36,94 –  38,48 12 37,71    0,31822 1422,044    17064,529
  38,48 – 40,02 5 39,25 0,12739 1540,563 7702,8125
  40,02 – 41,56 6 40,79 0,14709 1663,824 9982,9446
  41,56 – 43,1 4 42,33 0,0945 1791,829 7167,3156
Together 30 Х 0,7702 Х 45842,409
 
 
 

Table 16 A information and calculation information is for the calculation of the weighed averages on the output of calves2)

Groups are after the output of calves Frequency

f

Center  of interval, х fi / X2  
X22
 
X22fi
90 – 91,4 6 90,7 0,0662 8226,5 49358,9
91,4 – 92,8 3 92,1 0,0326 8482,4 25447,2
92,8 – 94,2 9 93,5      0,0963 8742,3 78680,3
94,2 –  95,6 5 94,9 0,0527 9006       45030
95,6 - 97 7 96,3 0,0727 9273,7 64915,8
Together: 30 Х 0,3205 Х 263432,2
 
 
 
 
 
 

Table 17.Weekend and calculation information for the calculation of the weighed averages after a yield on a cow  (Y)

Groups after

by a yield

Frequency

f

Center  of interval,

у

fi / Y  
Y2
 
Y2fi
    31,3 – 33,28 3 32,29 0,0929 1042,644 3127,932
33,28 –  35,26 3 34,27 0,0875 1174,433   3523,299
35,26 –  37,24 8 36,25 0,2207 1314,063   10512,5
37,24 –  39,22 13 38,23      0,34 1461,533    18999,93
39,22 –  41,2 3 40,21     0,0746 1616,844    4850,532      
Together 30 Х        0,8158 Х    41014,19
 
 

    1. The middle harmonious is weighed: 
     

                

      

    1. The middle quadratic is weighed: 

      

  

        

      

 

      Again will check or the expected middle the rule of majority answer:

      For the charges of forages: 38,95<39,05<39,09

      For the output of calves: 93,6<93,69<93,71

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