Cross-correlation analysis of the productivity of sugar beets and factors, that it is formed

Project task №79

before a term paper from statistics on a theme: „Statistical study of the productivity of cows” 

the Project task is given out a student __ to the course __ groups _________(Date) To give a term paper to defence       (Date)

Scientific leader       /doc.Krayevskiy V.M.

                                                     /аs. Ganaba M.D. 

PLAN 
 

Entry.............................................................................................................................................4

1. An object, task of statistics, its organization, short history of development and connection, is with other sciences........................................................................................................................................ 5

1.1. An object, task of statistics and its connection, is with other sciences..................................5

1.2. Short history of development of statistics..............................................................................7

2. Statistical estimation of indexes of products of stock-raising and factors, that on it influence.......................................................................................................................................9

2.1. System of indexes of statistics of stock-raising and method of their calculation....................................................................................................................................9

2.2. Statistical groupings and their kinds....................................................................................11

2.3. Distributing rows and them graphic image..........................................................................15

2.4. Summarizing the indexes of distributing rows......................................................................21

2.5. Variation of signs and indexes of their measuring...............................................................29

2.6. Verification of accordance of distributing of frequencies of empiric row to distributing

  Theoretical..................................................................................................................................36

2.7. Selective method....................................................................................................................37

3. Cross-correlation analysis of the productivity of sugar beets and factors, that it is formed...........................................................................................................................................40

3.1. Grade correlation..................................................................................................................40

3.2. Linear regression. Determination of parameters of connection and them economic interpretation.................................................................................................................................43

3.3. Measuring of intensity of correlation. Coefficient of simple correlation and his maintenance.................................................................................................................................. 48

3.4. Plural correlation...................................................................................................................50

Conclusions....................................................................................................................................56 

List of the used literature...............................................................................................................57 
 
 
 

       

       Entry

     Statistics are social science, which studies the quantitative side of the high-quality certain mass socio-economic phenomena and processes, their structure and distributing, placing in space, direction and speed of time-histories, tendencies and conformities to law of motion, closeness of intercommunications and interdepends.

     The quantitative side of any public phenomenon is indissolubly related to his high-quality aspects, because a quantitative dimension does not exist without high-quality definiteness.

     The task of statistical research consists in searching for of summarizings indexes establishment of conformities to law of public life, which appear only in a certain plural.

     The phenomena of public life are dynamic, inherent continuous changes and development them. The sizes of the phenomena, correlation and proportion change during a certain period. All of it means that the quantitative side of the public phenomena of statistician studies in the concrete terms of space and time.

     Given a term paper is dedicated to the study of the productivity of cows and factors, that on it influence.  So come forward the objects of my research: hopes, charges of forage and output of calves. The purpose of this course project is to rotin dependence of yield on the charges of forage on cows and output of calves. The quantitative reflection of intercommunication through the system of statistical indexes appears the task of this course project.   
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

1. An object, task of statistics, its organization, short history of development and connection, is with other sciences

 

1.1. An object, task of statistics and its connection, is with other sciences 

     A word «statistics» (from lat. status is the state of affairs) is  
a synonym of aggregate of facts, certain information about the socio-economic phenomena and processes. The determining line of such information is quantitative description. Name statistics also science which unites principles and methods of work with mass numeric data.

     Consequently, the objects of statistical analysis can be the most various phenomena and processes of public life. The article of statistics are sizes and quantitative between’s by the mass public phenomena, conformities to law of their forming, development, intercommunication.

     In the resulted determination of object statisticians are underlined two of principle his features. At first, statistics study the quantitative side of the public phenomena, and secondly, it studies the not single, but mass phenomena.

     Studying the quantitative side of the phenomena, statistician represents it in the numbers-indexes and exactly characterizes the concrete measure of the phenomena these, sets general properties, finds out a germination and difference of separate lines, unites elements in groups, finds out the certain types of the phenomena.

     Will notice that the study of quantitative side of the public phenomena is indissolubly related to their high-quality maintenance. In fact a quantitative dimension does not exist without high-quality definiteness. Yes, at grouping of population on age of statistician selects excellent contingents high-quality: preschool age, school, capable of working, pension. However before to figure on, it is necessary to define high-quality properties and limits of every contingent.

     The phenomena of public life are dynamic, they continuously change and develop. The sizes of the phenomena, correlation and proportion change in course of time. Their values are different for separate objects, regions and others like that. And consequently the quantitative side of the public phenomena of statistician must study in the concrete terms of space and time.

     Other  feature of the article of statistics is related to mass character of the public phenomena. Statistics study the phenomena which repeat oneself in space or in time.

     For the mass phenomenon characteristic participating in him of certain plural of elements substantial properties of which are alike. Yes, the shareholders of firm are united by a proper, managers, unlike shareholders, regulate businesses of firm, workers execute production functions are certain. The presence of any properties at a separate, single element - a chance. Barely only the far of elements unites in one unit, the combined action of chances gives a result, practically independent of case. Generally known, that the market of equities is related to the risk. Propensity to the risk among a population as a potential investor different. One are ready to risk, other do not present a risk without guarantees or avoid it at any terms. On the whole, propensity to the risk among young people considerably higher, than among people a summer, and too years old. A risk investor is young.

     Examining the public phenomena as mass and leaning on the account of all aggregate of facts which belong to these phenomena, statistics by numbers show a degree to their development, direction and speed of changes, closeness of intercommunications and взаємозалежностей. All of it grounds to assert that statistics are a mighty mean of cognition of difficult public life.

     Statistics are the diversified science, it consists of separate sections or industries which, being it by independent parts, closely associated between itself. To four component parts of statistics are this day selected:

     1) theory of statistics, which examines the categories of statistical science, and also general for any mass phenomena methods and facilities  
of analysis;

     2) economic statistics, which studies the phenomena and processes which take place in an economy, develop the system of economic indicators and methods of study of economy of country or region as one whole;

     3) of a particular branch statisticians (industrial, financial, social infrastructure and ò. other) develop maintenance and methods calculations of indexes, which remove the features of every separate industry;

     4) social statistics, the article of which is a study of social terms and character of labour, standard of living, incomes, consumption of material welfares and services to the populations.

     However much social science of statistician can develop separately from theoretical sciences about society, in particular economic theory and sociology. Leaning on essence, high-quality nature of the phenomena, through generalization of mass information of statistician studies character and operate basic laws in the real life. Assuming that complex of terms and factors which form the proper conformities to law, in future will remain unchanging, statistics do prognosis calculations, very necessary for the ground of directions of economic policy. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

                            1.2 Short history of development of statistics 

     The primary form of statistics was an economic account appearance of which behaves to the deep remoteness and related to formation of the states. For a government information is needed was about the quantity of population, composition of earths, population of cattle, state of shipping et al. Already there were the developed systems of state and administrative account in the countries of the Ancient world, that got a reflection in the sacred books of different people. Yes, Konfutsiy in the book of «Shu-king» alludes to information of census of population of China in 2238 to í. it is. In Bible, in the Fourth book of Moses «Chisla» told about the account of masculine population, able to carry arm or weapons.

     The ancient world was changed by character of economic account. An account on initiative of bankers, merchants, proprietors of workshops appears except for a state account, where slaves worked, and латифунцій. With expansion of connections and pictures of the world there were descriptions of the states. Aristotle described 157 cities and the states at one time.

     In ancient Rome the first statistical organ - qualification was formed for enumerating of free citizens. A considerable impulse to development got the account of private economies.

     From dark Ages to our times the unique report of information of the general landed census of England was saved «Book of doomsday». Development of cities resulted in appearance of municipal account.

     Exactness and authenticity of economic account were low. In everyday life people used comparative charts «anymore - less than» and only as a last resort - by quantitative measuring devices. Renaissance age gave to the world Luke Pacheli, which in the fundamental encyclopaedic labour «Sum of arithmetic, geometry, studies about proportions and relations» (1494) pawned bases of record-keeping.

     Development book-keeping account and primary registration of facts, accumulation of mass information about the public phenomena and necessity of their generalization, increase of demand in relation to the quantitative measuring of the phenomena and conformities to law of public life, development of such fundamental sciences, as philosophy and mathematics, which helped to realize value of statistics as mean of social cognition, - here incomplete list of terms due to which from the XVII item forming of statistics became inevitable. At the beginning of this process two was selected directions: stateknowing and political arithmetic.

     Stateknowing is often named descriptive school of statistics. Its representatives considered the systematized description of those facts which determine a grandeur and power of the state the basic tasks of statistics. However much verbal descriptions prevailed through narrow-mindedness of digital data, and mathematical methods of cognition are underestimated. Without regard to all of it, it follows to consider the aggregate of the developed indexes indisputable achievement of stateknowing creation of the special system of capture of statistical data about the mass phenomena.

     School of political arithmeticers at the study of the social phenomena gave advantage to quantitative descriptions. Founder of it V.Petti used the new method of leading to. In place of verbal comparisons, praise and abstract arguments he expressed the opinions the language of numbers, weight, measures.

     Political arithmeticers on the whole right defined essence of statistics, its task and value as to the method of social cognition. Their lamps indissoluble connection handed on the with practical, political and economic activity. The representatives of this school (A. Graunt, P. Zyusmil'kh but other) brought in a ponderable contribution to development of demography, entered tables and graphic arts in a scientific turn. In the XVIII item the first steps were done also on a way to the study of dynamics of prices by indexes (Dyuto, Charles).

     Thus, stateknowing and political arithmetic - two directions of gradual development of economic account, for them one object of research is society, but different methods are description and measuring.