Probing development of shadow economic activity in countries with high economic development, it was set that the basic factors of growth of illegal activity is increase of tax pressure and social deductions. It results in destruction of the tax system and system of social defence of population, and, in course of time, to the decline of tax receipts, increase of deficit of budget and growths direct of indirect tax rates and increase of loading on the payers of taxes.

      One of factors of growth of level of shadow sector is the high level of tax pressure. In opinion of author, assertion is given not always has confirmation. Not only the level of tax rates but also effective differentiation of the tax loading on a population and economic subjects matters. For an example, Greece, Italy, Belgium and Sweden has the highest tax rates in Europe (72–78%). In these countries it is enough high value of shadow economy (20 – 28,5%). At the same time to the developed countries with the low level of shadow economy belong Switzerland, USA (8,8 % and 7,5% accordingly) and they have low level of tax rate (39,7% and 41,4% accordingly).

     In accordance with the conducted research, the level of macroeconomic indexes was certain for countries by economic development of cut. To the highly developed countries it is possible to take the countries of the first a cluster, for countries which are included in the second a cluster characteristic community of values of indexes of shadow economy and macroeconomic indexes of countries of the first and third clusters, that answers the features of countries of transition-type (Table 4).

     Table 4

     Clusters of distributing of countries.

 

      Summarizing, will mark that for the developed economies fiscal instruments come forward the most ponderable factors of illegal economy, and in countries which develop, and in transition economies this factor is not determining. Inconsistency of legislation, non-rigid fiscal discipline, complication of registration and documentary maintenance of entrepreneurial activity, has greater ponderability.

     In obedience to theoretical researches, there is interdependence between the level of shadow economy in a country and growth of GDP rate. At a short-term prospect there is direct dependence between GDP and shadow economy, and there is reverse dependence at a long-term prospect.

      At growth of level of shadow economy on 1% there is slowing down increase of GDP on 0,03 %. The increase of particle of profits of state sector in GDP of country is often related to the increase of the tax loading on being in a charge subjects. It is classic reason of origin of shadow economy.

     D(DGP_GR)= 0,002964   –   0,036865*SHED                                        (1)

                                  (9.910220*)    (–5.638774*)

                       Adj. R2 = 0,54    DW =1,56

      where: D(DGP_GR)  is a rate of growth of GDP in %; SHED is a level of shadow economy in % from GDP.

      Research for Germany confirms this thesis, a panel regressive analysis shows that at growth of shadow economy on 1 % there is slowing down increase of GDP on 0,84 %.

    DGP     =    115,2665     –    0,838521*SH_E                                            (2)

                         (35.11236*)      (–3.966299*)

                       Adj. R2 = 0,48    DW =2,11

      where: DGP  is a rate of growth of GDP in %; SH_E is a level of shadow economy in % from GDP.

     In opinion of row of foreign specialists, a tax factor decides. Thus, in the economic developed market economies there is direct connection between GDP and sizes of shadow economy.

     In highly developed countries income, got in a shadow sector, almost all is outlaid  in  an official sector. In these countries shadow sector and the official is complemented each other. The test of Granger shows for highly developed countries, that a corruption in a greater degree influences on development of shadow economy, but not vice versa.

     Intercommunication of index of perception of corruption and level of shadow economy is confirmed a panel regressive analysis. At growth of index of perception of corruption on a 1 point is observed decline on level of shadow economy on 3,47%. That, the decline of level of corruption in the state results in the decline of level of shadow economy.

            SHED  =  39.54909  –    3.466006*COR                                           (3)

                               (18.49372*)    ( –9.986360*)

                            Adj. R2 = 0,54   DW = 1,3

     where: SHED is a level of shadow economy in % from GDP;  COR  is an index of perception of corruption.

     The bigger share of shadow economy in Ukraine is made by profits, got from criminal activity, in particular, avoiding payment of taxes. Annually over 4 milliards of USA dollars  are «laundering» in Ukraine. From them 90 % it is a money, got from avoiding payment of taxes, 5–6 % – from the illegal trading in vodka and tobacco wares, contraband goods. Other «dirty» money – from the drug dealing, trade in arms, prostitution, etc.

     The study of reasons of shadow economy in Ukraine allowed to set that on its distribution influenced:

     1) short-term factors (miscalculations are in reformation of relations of property; fiscal pressure; absence of stable and effective legislation; lag of the legal field is from practice of realization of shadow activity; low solvency of population; undeveloped market structure);

     2) medium-term factors (deformity of pattern of production; high production costs; surplus interference of the state with economic processes, monopolism of power and it almost complete irresponsibility; low level of development of productive forces and competitiveness of domestic commodities; low standards of quality of people life);

     3) long-term factors (the isolation of the Ukrainian economy from developed world and absence of adaptation period of including lasted in world economic system; absence in the subconsciousness of people of democratic traditions which are formed by decades and influence on the so-called honest enterprise, implementation of the duties before the state; historical traditions of people).

    Because of that countries with a transitional economy are characterized substantially the higher level of shadow economy, additional factors, characteristic for Ukraine, are reflected in research: absence is during the protracted historical period of the real proprietor; worsening of moral standards of conduct and, even, moral degradation of representatives of separate layers of society; considerable differentiation of profits of the richest and poorest layers of population and absence of middle class; disparity of qualification the level of profits of specialists.

    For determination of mutual causality of shadow economy and index of perception of corruption the test of Granger was conducted in transitional economies. For two lags hypothesis the «SH_E  does not cause the IND_COR» it is possible to cast aside at the level of statistical meaningfulness 5%. In accordance with shortchanging  a shadow economy in a greater degree influences on the index of perception of corruption, but not vice versa.

    In countries, where displays of corruption actions are systematic and a governmental  budget does not have balanced and countable, to pay an obligation taxes can not be perceived as an obligatory social norm.

     

      Figure 2. The most opaque industries of economy of Ukraine in 2006(%).

     Most opaque are the so-called new industries: growing’s reckless rates building and insurance, and also market of the buy-sold real estate, 62% which, as evaluated by Department of economics, is in shade (Figure 2). In transitional economies, as a rule, opened are youths and perspective industries which, at favourable time-tables, for a few years go out from shade and become the drivers of the economy growing. A model example is metallurgy, the particle of illegal operations in which 6 years ago made the half of the real turns of industry more than. Presently – about 20% (Figure 2).

     The ministry of economy in an every quarter report in relation to the basic tendencies of shadow economy of Ukraine gives such information: after the estimations of Department of economics, in first six month of 2007  a level of shadow economy was 30% from official GDP (Figure3).

     

    Figure. 3. An integral coefficient of shadow economy is in Ukraine % from official GDP.

     Demand is enhanceable on a cash on a hand instrumental in growth of level of shadow economy. Thus, it costs to mark that the dynamics of this index has cyclic character which closely enough correlates with hustings in Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine (Fig. 4) In accordance with this research a level of shadow economy is considerably higher from this index in accordance with information of statutory broker of statistics of Ukraine.

    Figure. 4 Tendencies of shadow economy in Ukraine (it is expected after the method of Feyga) in % of GDP.

    Thesis about dependence between GDP and index of corruption and level of shadow economy in countries with a transitional economy  confirms a panel regressive analysis. For countries with a transitional economy dependence between GDP and scales of economy illegalization appears reverse – growth of level of shadow economy on 1% results in the decline of level of GDP on 0,008% .

      GDP =  9.148525  –  0.008438*SH_E + 0.903627*IND_COR           (4)

               (5.064632*)       (0.384318*)         (–2.547410**)

             Adj. R2 = 0,6  DW = 1,13

      where: GDP is a level of GDP %; SH_E  is a level of shadow economy % from GDP; IND_COR is an index of perception of corruption.

      Dependence between the level of GDP and index of perception of corruption in the transitional economic systems is lines. That, at  growth of index of corruption on a 1 point there is growth of level of GDP on 0,90%. This hypothesis answers reality. The increase of index of perception of corruption testifies to the improvement of economic situation in a country and decline of level of corruption in the state.

      Dependence between the rate of growth of GDP and index of corruption and shadow economy in accordance with a panel regressive analysis is opposite to previous research. A growth of GDP rate testifies to economic development of country and improvement of standard of life of population. Positive influence of shadow economy on a growth of GDP rate is explained that shadow capitals, obtained in the illegal spheres of activity, after laundering go back into an official economy.

    Dependence between a growth of GDP rate and index of perception of corruption is reverse, that the increase of index of corruption on a 1 point results in slowing down growth of GDP on 0,24%.

     A shadow economy in Ukraine and countries with the developed market economy has both general and excellent signs. General is that one of constituents of shadow economy is criminality of transitional period – in Ukraine attained a that level, that and in the developed market states, when the accumulated capitals, including crime origin, became a mean feasances new, quite often more dangerous crimes. Profits are got due to the feasance of such offences and crimes left off to carry consumer character, and transformed in the base of recreation of illegal capitals and criminal potential in all of spheres of social-economic relations.

     In the conditions of the crisis phenomena in the socio-economic sphere of Ukraine a shadow economy is an original economic stabilizator. It is characterized greater flexibility and dynamic, than legal economy, must ability quickly fill blanks which arise up in economic space, and create additional workplaces, supporting the profits of citizens and enterprises during an economic crisis.

    In the third chapter «Conception of legalization of economy of Ukraine on the basis of experience of the developed countries» the basic methods of legalization of economy are systematized and suggestions are borne on diminishing of illegal sector of economy in Ukraine, taking into account experience of the developed countries. Certainly basic methods of counteraction legalization of facilities got a criminal way.

     Forming of the national system of counteraction the receipt of profits of criminal origin little the protracted character:

     – comprehension of shadow economy as socially – economic process of antistatic activity and accumulation of criminal capitals (1990 – 1997), appearance of scientific materials of the Ukrainian researchers;

     – inaction of law (1998 – 2002) is passing acts, decrees, decisions;

     – approbation period (2003 – 2004) is adjusting of the state monitoring that organization of the system of counteraction a shadow economy;

     – executive (from 2005) is localization of shadow activity, exposure of criminal charts and groupments.

    From the first years independences of Ukraine were accepted row of measures directed on a fight against the criminal appeal of money. With acquisition of membership in Advice of Europe (in 1995) the process of joining of Ukraine was begun to  Convention about laundering, search, arrest and confiscation of profits, got a criminal way.  Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine ratified this convention on December, 17 in 1997 In 2002 European convention was ratified about a fight against terrorism.

     The administrative methods of fight against laundering of profits include organization of effective financial control after laundering of criminal profits. Today in the world there were three basic models of control after motion of doubtful facilities in the system of financial institutes:

• checking system, which foresees an obligatory report about all of operations which exceed a certain sum;
• checking system which requires, that financial mediators took into account some or all of large currency operations, but reported only about those which cause suspicion;
• checking system, that forbidden realization of large operations  is with a cash on a hand, walking around a financial mediator.

     Warning and fight against white-laundering must take a place economic, administrative methods and measures of repressive character. Among the administrative methods of fight against white-laundering it is possible to select creation of the special organs and subsections, called to find out the facts of legalization of profits, got a criminal way, and prevent it. It will be instrumental in becoming of international image of Ukraine.

     To the economic methods of fight against white-laundering introductions of the rational system of taxation of legal and physical entities, creation of favorable investment climate, stimulation of development of enterprise belong and others like that. It is necessary to begin exactly from it.

     The repressive methods of fight against white-laundering are used the state with the purpose of exception of facilities from a stranger illegal domain for returning proprietors and reimbursement of losses to the state. It, in particular, confiscation, arrest, conclusion, fines. In our state a fight against laundering of facilities was begun exactly with these methods.

      Analyzing international experience and state of economy of Ukraine today, it is possible to assert that limitation and prohibitions of administrative character does not give the desired results. Therefore it is foremost necessary to perfect the system of co-operation and accordance of legislative acts, it is simultaneously necessary to decrease the amount of decisions of Cabinet and promote mobility of supervisory vehicle, simplify registration and other procedures of bureaucratic character, such as a receipt of licenses, permissions but other

      As economic crimes make a threat for financially – credit establishments, and losses from their finance grow rapid rates, it is necessary to apply the complex of measures of suppression, directed on diminishing of level of shadow economy. Offer a certain sequence in realization of measures, directed on prevention of shadow economy (table 5).

Table 5

Complex of measures prevention displays of shadow economic activity.