Adjectives

  

  

See the summary of expected Impacts of Global Warming 
 

 

  Meanwhile, additional IPCC reports by economists and social scientists explained that action to forestall all this was feasible with current or easily developed technologies. The cost, they agreed, would be far less than the cost of the damage from global warming. Note that these essays do not cover the complex history of debates over the economics of climate change and policies to ameliorate it.  

 

  In the now familiar cycle, the world's governments were now obliged to respond to the IPCC's findings. Convening at Bali in December 2007, delegates once again argued heatedly over equity between developing and developed nations and so forth. Emotions ran high amid threats of trade sanctions and boycotts. As the exhausting sessions neared their deadline, the head of the conference dissolved in tears and had to be led away. A last-minute obstruction by the U.S. delegation provoked booing and hissing. The delegate for Papua New Guinea raised cheers when he told the U.S., "If for some reason you are not willing to lead, leave it to the rest of us. Please — get out of the way." In a striking demonstration of the power of public opinion and the pull of consensus for democracies, the U.S. did get out of the way. The final Bali agreement was, inevitably, weak and ambiguous. But it sketched out a path for future negotiations that could, with enough will, yield serious results.(72)  

 

  

The 2007 report had barely been issued when a few experts began to warn that global warming was arriving at a faster and more dangerous pace than the panel anticipated. Within two years the majority of experts had come to agree. The 2007 report had been based on evidence published in peer-reviewed journals through about 2005, and as it happened, most of the science published in the next few years was discouraging. The IPCC had been constitutionally obliged to settle "conservatively" on statements that even the most optimistic parties would endorse, rather than focus on less likely but more dangerous risks — and those risks were beginning to look less remote. Temperatures and sea level were rising at about the upper limit of what the IPCC had projected. This was partly because the world's emissions were rising at the upper limit of what the IPCC had thought likely. But that was not all. New data and better theories showed that tropical forests and oceans were rapidly becoming less able to take some of the CO2 out of the atmosphere; emissions of other greenhouse gases like methane, long overlooked, were becoming as dangerous as CO2 itself; newly-discovered feedback mechanisms mostly worked in the wrong direction; and on and on. Actual harms that could probably be traced to climate change were showing up around the world with increasing frequency. Greenland and Antarctica were melting more quickly than most experts had believed possible; the icepack in the Arctic Ocean was shrinking far more swiftly than any model had projected; from prolonged droughts to the disappearance of entire species, much appeared to be happening sooner than expected. In March 2009 an international consortium of eleven universities brought more than 2,000 experts to Copenhagen to evaluate what had been learned since the IPCC panels crafted their reports. The scientists' overall conclusion: "The worst-case IPCC projections, or even worse, are being realized."(73)  

  
 

= Milestone 

  

  

  

  

  

  

<=Biosphere  

<=Other gases 

  
 

<=Sea rise & ice 

  

=>Public opinion

  

More and more governmental and corporate entitites, in the United States as much as elsewhere, were beginning on their own to seek efficient ways to limit their emissions. Faced with a serious possibility of international regulations, as well as threats of legal action and rising public activism, they saw they must act soon or risk crippling economic and social consequences... even aside from the risks of global warming itself. 

  

<=>Government

  

"Climatology, even by the standards of science, has been distinguished by a remarkable degree of interdisciplinary and international cooperation. As the world continues to grapple with the profound issues posed by the CO2 buildup, it could seek few better models of international cooperation than what we have already achieved." — E.E. David, Jr. (President, Exxon Research & Engineering Co.), 1982(74)  

  What are the world's nations doing about global warming, what can they do, and what should they do? See my Personal Note and links.    
 
 

RELATED:

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U.S. Government: The View from Washington

The Public and Climate

The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect

Supplement:

Climatology as a Profession

NOTES  
 

1.  Bryson testimony, May 26, 1976 United States Congress (95:1) (1977), p. 217. BACK  

2. Yoder (1997). BACK  

3. Smagorinsky (1970), p. 25. BACK  

4. Greenaway (1996), p. 48 and passim. BACK  

5. Miller (2001), p. 171 and passim. BACK  

6.  See e.g., Hamblin (2002), p. 14. BACK  

7.  See Needell (2000), chapter 11. Standard although superficial accounts of the IGY are Chapman (1959); Sullivan (1961); Greenaway (1996), ch. 12. BACK  

8. Lorenz (1967), pp. 26, 33, 90-91, ch. 5 passim. BACK  

9.  Kristine Harper as quoted in Doel (2002); Harlan Cleveland, "Keeping Up with Technology," Address to National GeoData Forum, Nov. 2, 2001, online here. Kennedy, address before the General Assembly of the United Nations, September 25, 1961, online here. Thanks to Bob Henson for correcting this reference. BACK  

10. Standards: Edwards, (2004). Fleagle (2001), pp. 57, 97; Perry (1975), p. 661; Conway (2008). BACK  

10a. Organizing committee: the Committee on Atmospheric Sciences; Bolin became Chair of GARP in 1967. For more on organizing GARP see Bolin (2007), pp. 20-23. Several short biographies and obituaries of Bolin may be found on the internet; the quote is from Bob Watson, "Bert Bolin (1925-2008),"Nature 451 (2008): 642. BACK  

11. Edwards (2000). BACK  

12. Taba (1991), p. 106. BACK  

13. Greenaway (1996), pp. 176-82. BACK  

14. Singer (1970) for Dallas 1968; Barrett and Landsberg (1975), p. 16; SCEP (1970). BACK  

15. SCEP (1970); Matthews et al. (1971); Wilson and Matthews (1971), pp. 125-29, quote on p. 129; for the history, Barrett and Landsberg (1975), pp. 16-17. BACK  

16.  "required:" Kellogg and Schneider (1974), p. 121; see Kellogg (1987). BACK  

17. Hart and Victor (1993), p. 662; Fleagle (1994), p. 174. See  UNEP's Web site. BACK  

18. Robinson (1967); Fleagle (1994), pp. 170-73; GARP (1975); Perry (1975), quote p. 663. BACK  

19. WMO (1975), p. ix; Perry (1975), pp. 66-67. BACK  

20.Stanhill (1999), reading from graph on p. 396, see also Stanhill (2001), fig. 2, p. 518. BACK  

21. Publications: Geerts, (1999), p. 64. Lamb (1997), pp. 199, 203-04. Other institutions at the time were the Institute for Environmental Studies founded in 1970 under Reid Bryson at the University of Wisconsin (incorporating a Center for Climatic Research that Bryson had created in the 1950s), and Budyko's Main Geophysical Observatory in Leningrad. BACK  

22. Nolin (1999), p. 138. BACK  

23. Greenaway (1996), p. 179, quoting F. Warner. BACK  

24. Thompson et al. (2001); Jäger (1992), p. iii; Fleagle (1994), p. 176; Lanchbery and Victor (1995), p. 31. BACK  

25. Bodansky (1997), quote at section 4.1.6. BACK  

26. Ramanathan et al. (1985); on Villach see Franz (1997), quote (by J.P. Bruce), p. 16; see also Pearce (2005c). Bolin: "Statement by the UNEP/WMO/ICSU International Conference," preface to Bolin et al. (1986), pp. xx-xxi. BACK  

26a. Bolin, ibid. On Bolin's role see Fred Pearce, "Bert Bolin," The Independent, Jan. 5, 2008, online here. BACK  

27. Agrawala (1999). BACK  

28.  Some elements are covered by Pomerance (1989), pp. 265-67. BACK  

29. Weiner (1990), p. 79. BACK  

30. Boehmer-Christiansen (1994). BACK  

31. Bolin et al. (1979); Bolin (1981). BACK  

32. National Academy of Sciences (1986) ; International Council of Scientific Unions (1986) ; Fleagle (1994), p. 195. BACK  

33. Bolin (2007), p. 39. Quote: Schneider (1987), p. 215. BACK  

34.  For history of the WCRP since about 1980, see this WCRP site, and for WOCE, Thompson et al. (2001). BACK  

35. O'Riordan and Jäger (1996), p. 2. BACK  

36. Brooks and McDonald (2000). BACK  

37. WMO (1989); Lanchbery and Victor (1995), pp. 31-32; Bolin (2007), p. 48; Jäger (1992), p. v. On all this, see also O'Riordan and Jäger (1996) and Franz (1997). BACK  

38. Nolin (1999) discusses the general trend of policy in Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, and the U.K. 1970s-1997; for Germany, see Beuermann and Jäger (1996). Steve Waddell, "The Climate Action Network: Civil Society Tackling Global Negotiations," Global Action Network Net (Jan. 2003), online here. BACK  

39. Jones and Henderson-Sellers (1990), p. 9. BACK  

40.  From 76 papers in 1975 to 447 in 1997, Stanhill (1999). BACK  

41.  Estimate of 200 to 300: Gee (1989). The IPCC study in 1995, aiming at comprehensive international inclusion, had about 500 "authors" and over 500 "reviewers" who submitted suggestions. . BACK  

42. Fleagle (1994), p. 179. BACK  

43. Agrawala (1999), p. 166 (this is a particularly penetrating study). BACK  

43a. See Bolin (2007), p. 47. Conclusions here can only be tentative until the Regan administration's files, at present still closed to the public, are opened and studied. BACK  

44. Weart (1998), pp. 264-65. On consensus, see p. 61. BACK  

45. Miller (2001), esp. pp. 212-13. BACK  

46. Chambers and Brain (2002); "circus:" McGourty (1988). BACK  

47. Ungar (1995). BACK  

48.  The scientific conclusions were prepared by the Science Assessments Working Group, chaired (later co-chaired) by John Houghton. On the process see Houghton (1997), p. 158; Bolin, (2007), passim. BACK  

49. Jäger (1992); Leggett (1999), pp. 9-28; Lanchbery and Victor (1995); Kerr (1990); IPCC (1990), see the IPCC's reports. BACK  

50.  Some of these polls were published only as summaries in bulletins. I have seen reports of polls by David Slade, 1989; by the "Global Environmental Change Report," vol. 2, no. 9 (11 May 1990); by Fred Singer and Jay Winston, 1991, for the Science & Environmental Policy Project; by the Gallup Organization for the Center for Science, Technology & Media, 1991; and by Thomas R. Stewart, Jeryl L. Mumpower, and Patricia Reagan-Cirincione for the Center for Policy Research of the Graduate School of Public Affairs of the State University of New York at Albany, 1991. Published surveys are Slade (1990) (esp. for degree of certainty and "surprises"); Chagnon et al. (1992); Morgan and Keith (1995) (a bit later, but particularly detailed); see also poll of a wider group of scientists, Anderson (1992). BACK  

51. Mintzer and Leonard (1994). BACK  

51a. Bolin (2007), pp. 96-97; Miller (2004), esp. pp. 50, 58-60; Dahan-Dalmedico (2008), pp. 73-74, 78. BACK  

52. Kerr (1995); IPCC (1996); see also interim report, IPCC (1992); on the process; on the process see Bolin (2007), pp. 112-13, 127-28; Stevens (1999), ch. 13; Gelbspan (1997), ch. 5; Edwards and Schneider (2001), pp. 236-40. BACK  

53.  A 1995 poll of 16 top American climate scientists indicated that they felt roughly 95% certain about the ranges they proposed, which were mostly similar to the IPCC's range, although in some cases with higher upper limits. Morgan and Keith (1995), p. 470. BACK  

54. van der Sluijs et al. (1998). BACK  

55. Christianson (1999), pp. 254-58, 263-68; Oberthür and Ott (1999); Stevens (1999), pp. 300-07. See the U.N. Framework Convention's official Web site. For Kyoto and post-Kyoto politics (especially in Australia) see Flannery (2006), chs. 24-26. BACK  

56. Leggett (1999). BACK  

57. Oberthür and Ott (1999), p. 300. BACK  

58. IPCC (2001), for probabilities see pp. 1, 6, 8, 13, 527. The panel did not go into the question of what a given probability range meant, but one might treat it as a Bayesian initial estimate; on the criticism, see Giles (2002) and on the scheme for meeting it, Moss and Schneider (2000). BACK  

59. Broecker (1997), p. 1586. BACK  

60. Knutti et al. (2002). BACK  

60a. See media reports and Babiker et al. (2002). BACK  

61. Bolin (2007), p. 186; Walker (2007). BACK  

61a. Economist (2000), p. 20, see also p. 61. BACK  

62. Victor (2001) is an example of searching analysis from one of the many individual viewpoints. BACK  

63. Trenberth (1999). BACK  

64. Warnings: IPCC (2001), p. 11. Funds: Stanhill (1999); Stanhill (2000), pp. 519-20. BACK  

65. Stanhill (2000), see Stanhll, op. cit. note 20; Geerts (1999), pp. 639-40. BACK  

66. Reuters, March 4, 2004; Wall Street Journal, May 7, 2003. BACK  

67. Gelbspan (2004), ch. 5; Flannery (2006), chs. 24-26. BACK  

68. "...what should have been an exercise in setting rules for a new market became a matter of horse-trading about pollution limits, with powerful companies lobbying for the largest possible allowances... [in 2005] governments gave away (i.e., did not sell) pollution permits that amounted to more than the pollution companies were actually spewing forth... When it became clear, in April [2006], that most allocations were larger than actual emissions, the price of carbon halved almost overnight... some countries (Germany, France and Poland) have scattered permits around like confetti while a few (Britain, Ireland and Spain) have been sparing because they want to cut emissions. Companies in the second group are buying permits issued in the first, so the market is transferring resources from places that are using the scheme to curb pollution to those that are not."— "Charlemagne," The Economist, Nov. 18, 2006, p. 54. The IPCC's 2007 report estimated that setting permits at $50 per ton would go far toward reducing global emissions. BACK  

68a. Both quotes: Hans Joachim Schellnhuber in Walter Gibbs and Sarah Lyall, "Gore Shares Peace Prize for Climate Change Work," New York Times, Oct. 13, 2007. BACK  

69. Meehl et al. (2007), section 9.6.4. BACK  

69a. IPCC (2007b); Pearce ( 2007b); Rahmstorf et al. (2007); Hansen (2007) The "different planet" phrase was developed by James Hansen, e.g., Hansen (2006), see Hansen's website,. Quote: Pittock (2006). BACK  

70. IPCC (2007a). For process, Zielinski (2007). News reports include James Kanter and Andrew C. Revkin in International Herald Tribune, Feb. 1, 2007, reports by Fred Pearce in New Scientist, Feb. 10 and March 10, 2007, and by Revkin in the New York Times, as well as reports in Nature, Science and other media, mostly available online. BACK  

71. IPCC (2007f), pp. 12-13. BACK  

72. See media reports in Nature, New Scientist (Fred Pearce), The Economist, etc. The statement of PNG delegate Kevin Conrad may be viewed on Youtube.com. BACK  

73. Richardson et al. (2009). Quote: Katherine Richardson in Kintisch (2009). BACK  

74. David (1984), p. 5. BACK  

copyright © 2003-2009 Spencer Weart & American Institute of Physics 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Коммуникативный подход в обучении иностранному языку

Материал из Letopisi.Ru — «Время вернуться домой»  

Первую строчку  в рейтинге популярности методик  активно удерживает коммуникативный  подход, который, как следует из его названия, направлен на практику общения. Эта методика отлично "работает" в Европе и США.

  

Коммуникативная методика, как следует уже из ее названия, направлена именно на возможность общения. Из 4-х "китов", на которых держится любой языковой тренинг (чтение, письмо, говорение и восприятие речи на слух) повышенное внимание уделяется именно двум последним. Вы не услышите на занятиях особенно сложных синтаксических конструкций или серьезной лексики. Устная речь любого грамотного человека достаточно сильно отличается от письменной. Попробуйте последить за собой в течение дня: много ли вы употребили длинных предложений? Конструкций в сослагательном наклонении? К сожалению, эпистолярный жанр уходит в прошлое, и если наши потомки будут судить о нас только на основе e-mail'ов и других "памятников" сетевой литературы, то их мнение вряд ли будет лестным...  

Однако ошибкой  было бы думать, что коммуникативный  метод предназначен только для легкой светской беседы. Те, кто хочет быть профессионалом в конкретной облаcти, регулярно читают публикации по своей тематике в иностранных изданиях. Обладая большим словарным запасом, они легко ориентируются в тексте, но поддержать беседу с иностранным коллегой на ту же тему им стоит колоссальных усилий. Коммуникативный метод призван, в первую очередь, снять страх перед общением. Человек, вооруженный стандартным набором грамматических конструкций и словарным запасом в 600-1000 слов, легко найдет общий язык в незнакомой стране. Однако есть и оборотная сторона медали: клишированностъ фраз и небогатый лексикон. Добавьте к этому массу грамматических ошибок, и вы поймете, что единственный способ не прослыть, скажем, так, неумным собеседником - повышенное внимание к партнерам, знание этикета и постоянное желание совершенствоваться. Те, кто учится по коммуникативной методике - "легкая кавалерия". Они гарцуют под стенами крепости, совершают стремительные атаки и хотят сорвать флаг, не замечая, как красива осажденная цитадель.